讨论一手牌

carterzhang

Pokerstar, $3 + 0.4 单桌Sit & Go; 前三人进钱圈；当时还有四个人，chipleader (CP) 6K, 我3.6K, 另两人3K 左右；blind 100/200我拿A10 off suit 在button raised to 600; CP call; 副老婆Q28 off, no flash draw; CP bet 200; I raised to 800; CP called again; turn card is A; CP bet 200, I call; River card is 7, no flash on board; CP bet 1800, 我当时还有2K chips left, so that basically put me all in; pot was 5200, so I get around 1:3 pot odds. 我当时的想法是，CP called my raise on flop, so he should have at least a pair, likely Q or 8; when the A hit on turn, his bet of 200 very susipious, maybe testing whehter I have a A; the last bet of 1800 make me really think that he has A8 off suit, and he is just slow playing on the turn. I eventually folded my A10 and want to know whether I made the right decision.

Howard

我认为楼主fold得至少是比较合理的。在cashgame里面，这是个no-brainer的call，你有1:3的odds，对手bluff加value bet但是牌没你好的可能性加起来有没有25%？我感觉是肯定有的，所以是肯定要call。但是在SNG里面，一切都要换算成money odds。假设你打得SNG是stars上最常见的50/30/20结构。分三种情况考虑1. 在River上如果你fold，你们4个人的chip是7.6K, 3k, 3k, 2k。你2K最少。用ICM (<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx">http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx</a><!-- m -->)算一下，你的奖金池EV是17.05%2. 如果你call，并且赢。假定w%你能赢吧。这时候你们是分别是7.2K, 3K，3k，2.4K。你跟chipleader对调位置，你的EV是35.58%3.如果call输了，概率是1-w，筹码是9.4K, 3k, 3k, 0.2K。你的EV是2.53%综合2，3，你call以后的EV是35.58%*w + (1-w)2.53% = 2.53% + 33.05% * w若要call EV = fold EV, w必须高于43.9%你的胜率有没有43.9%那么高？这个很难讲，要见仁见智，但是即使比43.9高，也高不到哪里去。在我看来，这是一个borderline的决定。也就是说，无论你call还是fold，都不是太大的错误。但是，以上计算也说明了一个严肃的命题，SNG胜4人的时候，不要轻易跟chipleader较劲！